Over the past couple of months, the US economy has been showing signs of stabilization and hope for very modest growth. However, as we enter another earnings reporting season, many market analysts fear that we may experience another drop, effectively erasing the recovery gains we have recently experienced, because they are expecting corporations to announce dismal results.
However, if we look at the situation from a longer term perspective, we see a few encouraging signs.
First, the stock market’s rising trend subsided because stock values have sufficiently risen and investors took some profit. From this point of view, the market is taking a healthy pause and investors are making up for some of their past losses.
Second, it is normal to expect that earnings results will be weak. We’re in the middle of the greatest recession in decades and the entire world is feeling it. Analysts are hoping that corporations sufficiently lowered expectations so that the stock market doesn’t take a beating. Fair enough. However, we are facing macro-economic problems of worldwide systemic proportions and any weak financial corporate results would reflect multiple levels and sources of problems, not just bad execution. It’s time to read quarterly reports very carefully and it would behoove corporations to provide full-spectrum explanations, specifically relating certain financial results and ratios to the most prevalent macro-economic conditions affecting their companies and industries. This is one time that companies can blame part of their performance on a very bad economic environment. But generalizations will not convince. Companies need to be specific and make specific commitments to recovery.
Third, we are likely all concerned about job loss and this leads us to focus on what the government and individual CEOs will do to payrolls. Although there is ample cause to be concerned, focusing on such an issue is like looking in the rear view window of a car moving forward. Unless corporations receive information from customers and potential customers that an increase in demand for their products and services is imminent, they will look at past results to make decisions about the future. It’s the only sane way of managing but, as financial analysts and accountants like to remind us at the beginning of every financial statement: “past results are not necessarily an indication of future performance.” And this puts the consumer in full spotlight.
So, where does this leave us in worrying about this worldwide economic mess?
First, it has been said that we are not out of the heaviest part of this recession yet because major financial institutions are still, in fact, broke. Government’s injection of cash is simply a way to keep the economic cycle moving but apparently no progress has been made by financial institutions to clean up their balance sheets. However, there have been discussions between these financial institutions and government to find a way, soon. Furthermore, the US government sent a clear message to bank CEOs that they are not immune to dismissal.
Second, most of us are still working and still spending money, even if it is at a reduced rate and in a more considered fashion. And this is where savvy entrepreneurs can make a difference.
And it’s at this point that we can see some light in all this darkness. Even though companies want us to over-consume so they can continue their linear extrapolations of past results to point to a predictable future, reality does not work in such a fashion. And this is why we turn to the average consumer to see where the bottom is. Consumers need to eat, move, work, heal, bathe, etc. These necessities are what I like to consider the ‘organic’ part of our economy. Growth and stability in such areas indicates ‘organic’ economic stability and growth.
And, it is in these areas that we see potential. For example, all these food safety issues that we experienced over the past year created a need for process re-engineering, or analysis and reconfiguration at very least.
Also, many new products such as cars, refrigerators, washing machines, barbeques have all experienced interesting technological improvements over the past few years. If suppliers are stuck with inventory that has not moved for a few quarters, they are under pressure to cut margins and move inventory.
So, what’s different from 12 months ago? What’s different is 4 financial quarters of a falling bottom. In academic terms, we are not moving along the supply and demand curves to establish new market clearing prices for goods and services. The demand curve, itself, isshifting and this is causing a shift in the supply curve. This is big stuff. In plain English, this means that the need for employees shrank (and likely got eliminated), as did the need for factories, land, and any other resources that go into producing goods and services. In other words, we made too much stuff that nobody wants.
So, for those who still have jobs, it’s important to keep spending. For corporations, it’s important to focus profits on general economic prosperity above-and-beyond the mere survival of one’s company and personal objectives. Where this process broke down is that massive amounts of profit left our economy, in one instance, and we disregarded macro financial responsibility in another instance.
By continuing to focus on basics, our economy can recover, over time, through organic growth and stability. Thanks to egregious greed, the next decade, or so, will see much more humble growth since we need to focus on the basics: food, healthcare, shelter, and maybe transportation. This may seem obvious to the consumer but it has implications for corporate executives - this is what it means to get an economy back on its feet.
By maintaining such a focus, employment can stabilize. And, although net revenues may be flat to modestly up, as long as individual income is stable and predictable, the employed will continue to support the economy by spending on every-day necessities, getting their children to school and spending time with family and friends. Even keeping the dog fed helps the economy with over $20 billion/year in gross revenues to dog food makers, distributors and retailers.
For the entrepreneur, it’s important to look at today differently from yesterday. We have new customers that are spending less, are more deliberate about finding value, but still need stuff - they need food, clothes, transportation, education, health care, moderate activity. And, both consumers and suppliers can use some reassurance that everything is fine as long as we don’t get greedy and impatient.
For the unemployed, it’s important to diligently continue a sharp job search and, as organic growth fuels the recovery, each new quarter can bring a few more jobs until we return to normal employment rates. Here, too, government will need to help us along. (Tangentially, if corporations got bailouts because they owed more than they earned, shouldn’t consumers get bailed out as well? Just a thought.)
In addition, prices need to drop to a point where an average family’s budget is back in balance. Because Americans carried more individual debt than virtually any country in the world, this is probably the most fundamental issue that should be addressed. Both former President Bush and current President Obama provided cash-back solutions to citizens. Bush gave the money in-hand through income tax reimbursement checks. Obama is providing it through a reduction of withholding taxes on pay checks. In either case, however, people lamented that the actual amounts received bore little impact on them personally.
Looking at it simply, except for the price of food in restaurants, which has dropped significantly in the past 8 months, stuff costs too much: cars are too expensive, homes are too expensive, healthcare is too expensive, and so is technology in many respect. Have you seen your home communication bill recently? What does it cost you for cable, telephone, and internet? I remember a $12 cable bill, and a $15 phone bill! I also remember a $1.10 gallon of gas, 12 years ago. Have our salaries climbed as quickly?
It’s not just the financial institutions that are in crisis. The consumer has been in crisis for much longer. We may even argue that because of the consumer’s crisis, the banks failed.
The best way out of this recession is for the average American to become debt-free (except for a home and a SMALL loan on a car), get employed, and live healthier. For this reason, I can easily believe that suppliers of large ticket items and luxury goods will experience a very challenging sales environment and responsible, employed families will continue to help us out of this recession through regular, organic growth.
Government will need to ensure the correct circulation rate of the economic cycle until it can do so on its own because too many parts of the free market system are broken. Nonetheless, the free market system remains the best means of managing resources known to Man… as long as you don’t break it.